Nifty Ends September Series 6% Lower Closes Below 11,000-Mark

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Markets traded with a negative bias right through the day with broad-based selling witnessed across the market. Nifty ended the day 76 points lower to close at 10,977. All sectoral indices on the Nifty, save the IT index, closed in the red.

Bank Nifty too underperformed and ended the day 334 points lower at 25,042. Yes Bank continued to face heavy selling pressure and ended the day 9.16% lower at Rs203.

Tracking the derivative data points, Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures witnessed a surge in open interest mainly short positions (taking October data into consideration).

On the options front, heavy call writing was witnessed in at-the-money and out-of-the-money strikes with 11,000CE and 11,100CE adding ~16.69 lakh shares and ~12.73 lakh shares, respectively.

India Vix ended 0.98% lower at 16.92.

Nifty	-76 points @10,977
Bank Nifty	-334 points @25,042
Top 2 F&O Gainer	ADANIENT, CHENNAI PETROLEUM
Top 2 F&O Loser	SREI INFRA, YES BANK
Most Active Index Option Contract
Call Option	11000CE, O.I: ~+16.69 lakh shares
Put Option	11000PE, O.I: ~-12.44 lakh shares
Nifty Max O.I Strikes	11500CE, 11000PE

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5 Value Buys That Could Return 11-16% Return In 1-2 Months

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The markets got off to a positive start for the week following positive global cues. The Nifty closed at 10,853, up 0.74 percent on Monday. The index formed a ‘Hanging Man’ kind of candlestick pattern on the daily chart, which is a reversal pattern.

The index has managed to close above the falling resistance line connecting the high of 11,172 after previous failed attempts. The daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line has given a positive crossover, with its average suggesting that the consolidation phase is now over.

If it continues to hold above 10,790, the index can rally initially towards 10,929 and then possibly towards 11,100 levels.

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See Nifty In 10,500-10,700 Band Till May Expiry These 3 Buy Ideas Could Offer 11-13% Returns

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The markets staged a smart recovery from lower levels. The Nifty regained the crucial level of 10,550, led by short covering. However, call writers are once again seen active in 10,700 strikes, which will restrict the market’s upmove further.

However, in the last two trading sessions, call writers were more active compared to put writers which signals limited upside in the market ahead of expiry.

We expect the Nifty to trade in a 10,500-10,700 band for the next two trading session. From a technical point of view, 10,580 and 10,550 spot levels will act as major support for the index, while resistance is placed around 10,650-10,700 levels.

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Market Likely To Open Lower, To Remain Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tension

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The Indian benchmark Index Nifty closed higher for the straight eighth consecutive day, despite of geopolitical tension and trade war between US and China.

The Index rose 48 points or 0.46 percent to settle at 10528.35. US President Donald Trump declared mission accomplished on Twitter on Saturday, a day after the US, France and the UK launched military strikes targeting three chemical weapons facilities in Syria in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack in Douma on April 7.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly warned on Sunday that further Western attacks on Syria would bring chaos to world affairs, as Washington prepared to increase pressure on Russia with new economic sanctions.

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Nifty Closed Above Immediate Resistance Level Of 10650 Mark

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Nifty and Bank Nifty Index futures added fresh open interest to the tune of ~5.04/1.88 lakh shares, indicating a buildup of long positions.Markets continue to remain resilient as benchmark index witnessed sharp recover in the trade today. Nifty Realty index continued its dream run, closing 2% higher, backed by the strong rallies in Godrej Prop, Oberoi Realty and IB Realty. 

Capital First and IDFC Bank rallied on account of a speculation of a merger. Market breadth ended in favor of advances with Advance decline ratio closing at 1:1x.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Index futures added fresh open interest to the tune of ~5.04/1.88 lakh shares, indicating a buildup of long positions.

Tracking the Nifty options, out of the money call option strikes saw large unwinding of short positions as the index inched higher.

Nifty 10700CE saw an unwinding of 3.98 lakh shares in open interest, indicating a positive bias for the index going forward. 10600PE added ~13 lakh shares in open interest consisting of mainly short positions. India Vix ended the day at 14.01 down 0.2%.

 

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Nifty Heads Towards 10,800; 3 Stocks Which Can Give Up To 21% Return In 6 Months

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The equity benchmark index rolled over bullish momentum in the calendar year 2018, further boosted by government’s step of seeking Parliament approval for the recapitalisation of bonds.

Eventually, this helped Nifty to record all-time high of 10,659. Similarly, Midcap & Smallcap indices are sustaining at all-time high suggesting buoyancy in the broader market.

On a weekly basis, the index has continued showing respect to the long-term trend line joining the December 2016 and September 2017. The resilience of the key long-term trend line indicating that the market internals remains robust and bodes well for the continuance of the primary uptrend.Thus, we believe that any correction from hereon should be used as an incremental buying opportunity as Q3FY18 earnings expectations and Budget expectations would influence investor sentiment.

We expect Nifty to move towards 10,836 as the recent leg of up move from December low of 10,033 would equate with October rally (9,687-10,490) at 10,836.

In the entire up move since December 2017, intermediate corrective phases have not lasted more than 2-3 trading sessions post which the index has resumed the uptrend.

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Wall Street Ends Slightly Lower As Earnings Worries Linger

US stocks ended marginally lower on Thursday as lingering worries about upcoming corporate earnings reports offset enthusiasm about a trio of soaring Wall Street debuts. Weighing on the S&P 500 were Apple and General Electric, which is expected to report its first-quarter results on Friday before the start of trading. The S&P 500's top gainer, Netflix, closed 18.21 percent higher a day after the video streaming service posted better-than-expected results.

Shares of Etsy Inc, an online marketplace for handmade goods and crafts, finished 87.5 percent higher and private-equity backed Party City's stock jumped 21.77 percent in their IPOs. The stock of electronic trading firm Virtu Financial Inc closed 16.74 percent higher in its market debut in a sign that public angst over high-frequency trading is waning. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 6.84 points, or 0.04 percent, to end at 18,105.77. The S&P 500 lost 1.64 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,104.99 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.23 points, or 0.06 percent, to 5,007.79.

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Asian Stocks Open Lower After Soft US Finish

Asian equities headed south early Friday, tracking an unimpressive lead from their US peers overnight. The major US indices settled marginally lower on Thursday, hurt by lingering worries about upcoming earnings reports. "The benign data reads in the US saw a flat finish on Wall Street. This trading momentum is likely to translate into the final day's trade of the week in Asia," Evan Lucas, IG's market strategist.

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Sensex Falls Over 100 Pts On Fear Of Weak Q4 Results

The median pay of top 100 CEOs in America has risen by 5 percent to USD 14.3 million in 2014, a study has found. Besides this, the base salary ranged from USD 7.1 million for Rupert Murdoch at 21st Century Fox to nil for Richard Fairbank at Capital One, said Equilar 100 CEO Pay Study. The study, which is an analysis of CEO salaries at the 100 largest public US companies as measured by revenue, puts Microsoft's Indian-origin chief Satya Nadella on the top with a pay package of USD 84.3 million (Rs 525 crore) a year. The list was topped by Oracle's Larry Ellison last year, who has been now pushed by Nadella to the second spot. Microsoft, however, said that Nadella's pay for 2014 totals to USD 22.75 million only after taking into account the annualised value of special and one time equity awards.

The market has taken a steep fall ahead of March quarter earnings. The Sensex is down 125.68 points at 28674.01 and the Nifty is down 48.05 points at 8702.15.About 817 shares have advanced, 1405 shares declined, and 132 shares are unchanged. ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Hindalco and M&M are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are Wipro, Cipla, Infosys, Sesa Sterlite and TCS.

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Nifty Breaks 8700; TCS Falls 1% Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

The Sensex fell 131.97 points to 28667.72 and the Nifty dropped below 8700, down 51.40 points to 8698.80. The broader markets also declined. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell over half a percent. With clarity emerging on FY16 subsidy sharing. The finance ministry on Wednesday communicated to the oil ministry that it will fully compensate oil marketing companies for Q4 under-recoveries of FY15. The finance ministry has agreed to pay Rs 5300 crore for under-recoveries of OMCs, exempting upstream oil companies from sharing the burden. the government will be paying the entire FY16 LPG subsidy through direct transfer, and upstream oil companies will be exempt from the same. But upstream PSU oil companies will have to share the entire under-recovery associated with kerosene. This scenario is in line with Goldman Sach's estimates for upstream companies, improving the cashflow visibility for OMCs as it forecasts no subsidy payment in Q4 for OIL/ONGC and the FY16 realization is further based in line with its estimate of USD 50/bbl. "We believe the above scenario would be modestly positive for OMCs as direct transfer of cash by the government would further reduce working capital requirements for OMCs, thus improving earnings and cashflow visibility. Currently OMCs are transferring cash to customer accounts, for which they are reimbursed by the government."

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Sensex Falls, Midcap Gains : Tata Motors Down, ACC Up

The market declined marginally on profit booking in healthcare, technology and telecom stocks. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC also saw selling pressure. However, banks stocks bucked the trend. The Sensex dropped 60.98 points to 28983.46 and the Nifty fell 20.10 points to 8813.90 while the broader markets continued their outperformance, up half a percent. About 1260 shares have advanced, 727 shares declined, and 137 shares are unchanged on the BSE. Tata Motors slipped 1.8 percent post JLR retail sales growth of 6 percent in March, which was slightly than street estimates. Jaguar volumes were down 20 percent year-on-year while Land Rover volumes jumped 13 percent Y-o-Y. China volumes were the biggest disappointment, at 7000 units, down 34 percent Y-o-Y. ACC gained 1.5 percent as Q1 results positively surprised at the EBITDA level. Deutsche Bank said Q1 was off to a robust start and they raised CY15E EPS by 5 percent and increased target price to Rs 1630/share.

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Broader Market Outshines Sensex In April : Top 10 Midcap Stocks To Track This Earnings Season

The S&P BSE Midcap index has risen a little over 5 per cent as compared to a 3.8 per cent rally seen in the BSE Sensex so far in the month of April. According to experts, mid and small cap shares have outperformed large cap peers on hopes that these companies may spring earning surprises over the next couple of quarters. The BSE Mid Cap Index has rallied 7.5% in the past two weeks, while the BSE Small Cap Index has surged nearly 15%. The Sensex has gained 5.75% in the same period. 

The CMX Midcap, CNX Smallcap and Nifty Junior hit all-time high on Monday on the back of sustained buying activity. This is a classical bull-run effect. The Nifty Midcap 50 has given a breakout. That is where possibly action would be and as long as the Nifty starts breaking below levels of around 8720-8730. The midcap stocks have been on a tear in India. They have outperformed the large caps by 20% over the past year and the P/E multiple is at a 25% premium, the highest in at least ten years.

The BSE Mid Cap Index is currently at 30.28 times, while the Sensex is trading at 19.95 times its reported earnings. The BSE Small Cap Index closed at 11,942 on Monday, which is about 20% below its all-time high of 14,239 made in January 2008. Some of the midcap and small cap indices have actually bounced back in a very big way after falling to multi-year low in 2013. "If we look at the calendar year 2013, we had a huge depression in the midcap and small cap stocks. That is somewhat now easing. FY15 has been a story of the midcap and small cap stocks and that is where the confidence has come back from a lot of equity investors.

We have collated a list of top 10 midcap companies which investors should look at buying on dips as they declare results for the quarter ended March 31 in April.

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Sensex, Nifty Open Flat : HDFC, SBI, L&T Gainers

The market opened higher on first day of truncated week but immediately gave up gains to trade flat. The Sensex rose 5.03 points to 28884.41 while the Nifty fell 6.95 points to 8773.40. The broader markets continued to outperform benchmarks with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 0.3-0.6 percent. About 704 shares have advanced, 253 shares declined, and 88 shares are unchanged on the BSE. L&T, BHEL, HDFC, SBI, Cipla, Tata Steel and NMDC gained 0.5-1 percent while GAIL dropped 2 percent. Dr Reddy's Labs, M&M, HDFC Bank, Sesa Sterlite and Coal India declined 0.5-1 percent. The Indian rupee opened flat at 62.33 per dollar today against Friday's closing value of 62.31 a dollar. We also expect the USD sellers to take advantage of any upticks to 62.45-62.50/dollar. 

The USD selling interest will come from exporters and capital inflows." "The CPI data after market hours will be closely watched as it will be the first significant data point after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy last week," In the US, stocks closed higher on Friday with the Dow topping 18,000 for the first time in April as investors looked ahead to start of earnings season.

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Wall Street Week Ahead : US Stocks Look To Extend Breakout

US stocks are poised for more upward momentum even as uncertainty over oil prices and Greek debt negotiations keeps the market on tenterhooks. US company earnings and signs of an overall improving economy, alongside what appears to be the start of a bottoming in crude oil prices, have given equities support. After starting 2015 with its sharpest monthly drop in a year and a spike in volatility, the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX hit an intraday record on Friday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI reached its highest point so far this year. As "stocks have found a footing, people aren't as afraid of the potential negative" stemming from recent instability in oil prices and Greece. "That's allowed stocks to start breaking out of the channel that they've been stuck in since the beginning of the year." Volatility seems to abating. The CBOE Market Volatility Index .VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, oscillated between 15 and 24 for most of 2015, rising over its historical mean of 20 during 15 of the year's 30 trading days so far. Its 20-day moving average hit its highest since mid-2012 earlier this month. But on Friday, the VIX fell to its lowest level this year, briefly trading below 15. That, together with a rising market, could be a promising sign. "Market breadth, while it hasn't been wonderful, has been positive.

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GE Sparks Broad Wall St Rally : Indexes Post Weekly Gains

US stocks ended a strong week with a broad rally on Friday as investors lauded GE's decision to divest most of its high-risk GE Capital business and repurchase up to USd 50 billion of its shares. All 10 primary S&P 500 sectors ended up on the day but the S&P Industrials index, driven by gains in GE shares, was by far the best performer and rose 1.5 percent. General Electric rose 10.8 percent to USD 28.51, hitting its highest level since September 2008 after it said there was potential to return more than USD 90 billion to investors through 2018. Friday marked the biggest one-day jump for the stock, as well as the most active session, since March 2009. More than 351 million shares changed hands, making GE the most active name on the New York Stock Exchange by far. It was also the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 98.92 points, or 0.55 percent, to 18,057.65, the S&P 500 gained 10.88 points, or 0.52 percent, to 2,102.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 21.41 points, or 0.43 percent, to 4,995.98. For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains, helped by a pickup in merger activity. Investors are looking ahead to the first-quarter earnings season. While some companies reported this week, next week will see results from a number major firms, including several banks. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,782 to 1,232, for a 1.45-to-1 ratio on the upside; on the Nasdaq, 1,603 issues rose and 1,100 fell for a 1.46-to-1 ratio favoring advancers. The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 26 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite was recording 93 new highs and 21 new lows. About 5.47 billion shares traded on all U.S. platforms, according to BATS exchange data, down from the month-to-date average of 6.22 billion.

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