A Morning Walk Down Dalal Street | Immediate Hurdle For Nifty Placed At 11,760-11,777

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The Nifty50 might have closed lower on the August expiry day but it rallied 4.5 percent or a little over 500 points in August series to touch new highs above 11700.

A couple of factors which started weighing on investor sentiment is falling rupee as well as rise in crude oil prices which are a threat to our current account deficit, as well as trade war woes.

Washington has proposed slapping tariffs on a further USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods after a public comment period ends on Wednesday, September 5, said a Reuters report.

The Indian rupee fell further by 23 paise against the US dollar to trade at a lifetime low of 70.82

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CLSA's Balanco Sees Start Of Re-Rating For EMs; Has 12K As Nifty Target For H1CY18

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It is start of a re-rating for emerging markets and the positive trade is to move out of international assets into emerging market assetsTo discuss the many reports that are saying there could be a melt-up in the big global markets before there is correction, CNBC-TV18 spoke to Laurence Balanco of CLSA who have been reading the charts of these markets and some other indicators.

Balanco said expect a 3-5 percent pullback in the near-term but not a big correction, adding that one should treat this correction as a buying opportunity.

However, avoid chasing momentum in the near-term, he said.

With regards to Indian market, he said the Nifty is currently in a trading range. He has a target of 12000 on the index for H1CY18 and target of 31000 on the Bank Nifty.

He said it is start of a re-rating for emerging markets and the positive trade is to move out of international assets into emerging market assets.

Talking about other asset class, he said resistance level for crude is around USD 60 per barrel. For gold, the upside target is USD 1800 per ounce in the medium-term

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Sensex Falls Over 100 Pts On Fear Of Weak Q4 Results

The median pay of top 100 CEOs in America has risen by 5 percent to USD 14.3 million in 2014, a study has found. Besides this, the base salary ranged from USD 7.1 million for Rupert Murdoch at 21st Century Fox to nil for Richard Fairbank at Capital One, said Equilar 100 CEO Pay Study. The study, which is an analysis of CEO salaries at the 100 largest public US companies as measured by revenue, puts Microsoft's Indian-origin chief Satya Nadella on the top with a pay package of USD 84.3 million (Rs 525 crore) a year. The list was topped by Oracle's Larry Ellison last year, who has been now pushed by Nadella to the second spot. Microsoft, however, said that Nadella's pay for 2014 totals to USD 22.75 million only after taking into account the annualised value of special and one time equity awards.

The market has taken a steep fall ahead of March quarter earnings. The Sensex is down 125.68 points at 28674.01 and the Nifty is down 48.05 points at 8702.15.About 817 shares have advanced, 1405 shares declined, and 132 shares are unchanged. ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Hindalco and M&M are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are Wipro, Cipla, Infosys, Sesa Sterlite and TCS.

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Nifty Breaks 8700; TCS Falls 1% Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

The Sensex fell 131.97 points to 28667.72 and the Nifty dropped below 8700, down 51.40 points to 8698.80. The broader markets also declined. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell over half a percent. With clarity emerging on FY16 subsidy sharing. The finance ministry on Wednesday communicated to the oil ministry that it will fully compensate oil marketing companies for Q4 under-recoveries of FY15. The finance ministry has agreed to pay Rs 5300 crore for under-recoveries of OMCs, exempting upstream oil companies from sharing the burden. the government will be paying the entire FY16 LPG subsidy through direct transfer, and upstream oil companies will be exempt from the same. But upstream PSU oil companies will have to share the entire under-recovery associated with kerosene. This scenario is in line with Goldman Sach's estimates for upstream companies, improving the cashflow visibility for OMCs as it forecasts no subsidy payment in Q4 for OIL/ONGC and the FY16 realization is further based in line with its estimate of USD 50/bbl. "We believe the above scenario would be modestly positive for OMCs as direct transfer of cash by the government would further reduce working capital requirements for OMCs, thus improving earnings and cashflow visibility. Currently OMCs are transferring cash to customer accounts, for which they are reimbursed by the government."

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Sensex Falls, Midcap Gains : Tata Motors Down, ACC Up

The market declined marginally on profit booking in healthcare, technology and telecom stocks. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC also saw selling pressure. However, banks stocks bucked the trend. The Sensex dropped 60.98 points to 28983.46 and the Nifty fell 20.10 points to 8813.90 while the broader markets continued their outperformance, up half a percent. About 1260 shares have advanced, 727 shares declined, and 137 shares are unchanged on the BSE. Tata Motors slipped 1.8 percent post JLR retail sales growth of 6 percent in March, which was slightly than street estimates. Jaguar volumes were down 20 percent year-on-year while Land Rover volumes jumped 13 percent Y-o-Y. China volumes were the biggest disappointment, at 7000 units, down 34 percent Y-o-Y. ACC gained 1.5 percent as Q1 results positively surprised at the EBITDA level. Deutsche Bank said Q1 was off to a robust start and they raised CY15E EPS by 5 percent and increased target price to Rs 1630/share.

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Wall Street Ends Higher After Bounce In Oil Prices

The Dow and S&P 500 ended higher on Tuesday, helped by energy stocks and quarterly earnings reports that topped modest expectations following worries about a strong dollar. Shares of Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other energy companies followed crude higher after a forecast that US shale oil output in May would record its first monthly decline in more than four years. The S&P 500 energy index jumped 1.77 percent. Norfolk Southern Corp dropped 4.18 percent to USD 100.49 a day after it forecast a surprise drop in its first-quarter earnings and revenue. A strong dollar, cheap oil and poor weather in the eastern United States in recent months have investors bracing for a difficult March-quarter earnings season. First-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are seen falling 2.9 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. On Jan. 1, analysts had been looking for growth of 5.3 percent. 

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 59.66 points, or 0.33 percent, to end at 18,036.7. The S&P 500 gained 3.41 points, or 0.16 percent, to 2,095.84 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 10.96 points, or 0.22 percent, to 4,977.29, with Apple down 0.43 percent. After the bell, Intel Corp forecast revenue broadly in line with Wall Street's low expectations and signaled a hefty cut in capital expenditures this year, sending its shares up 2.6 percent. U.S. railroad CSX Corp reported a higher quarterly net profit and announced a USD 2 billion share repurchase program, sending its shares 3.43 percent higher in extended trade. During the regular session, Chevron's shares gained 2.2 percent and Exxon rose 1.5 percent. Nokia Oyj is in talks to buy Alcatel-Lucent SA, a deal that would combine the telecommunications industry's two weakest players. US shares of Nokia fell 4.09 percent to USD 7.96 while Alcatel rose 13.33 percent to USD 4.93.

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SEBI Under Fire Over IPO Bottleneck

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), under pressure to tighten scrutiny, is taking as long as a year to approve initial public offerings, prompting criticism from firms already grappling with unpredictable demand and a lack of alternative funding sources. India's stock market has soared, touching record highs last month. It was Asia's second-best performer last year, thanks largely to more than $16 billion of foreign investment. But the boom has failed to translate into many IPOs, a vital source of capital especially for small companies which make up the bulk of the economy yet often struggle to access keenly priced bank loans. Investor demand has been lukewarm, and India has seen lacklustre debuts in 2015. Private equity firms, key drivers of the market, have also struggled to exit through listings that would in many cases crystallise losses.

But some bankers and companies say delays in the review of listing documents by the SEBI are complicating the listing process, jeopardising billions of dollars of extra liquidity for Indian shares.

"Getting an approval takes a lot of time, and after that, unless you have four or five merchant bankers willing to underwrite the whole issue, it becomes very difficult to raise money," said Nevil Savjani, vice president at boutique merchant banker Corporate Strategic Allianz Limited. "SEBI's guideline is that they approve it within 30 days, after an in-principle nod from the stock exchanges. But generally, if you look at any of the IPOs it takes it at least one year."

The time regulators take to approve listing prospectuses can vary depending on everything from the quality of the document to the amount of IPOs in the pipeline. But Hong Kong, for example, typically takes a month or two, and no longer than six months. It also wants to prevent a repeat of cases like property developer DLF, penalised by SEBI last year for disclosure problems around its record 2007 listing. The penalty was overturned on appeal. Inox Wind Ltd (INWN.NS), an alternative energy firm which began trading this month, had to wait for a year before its listing plans were approved. Its bankers, awaiting a favourable moment, took another eight months to get the shares to market.

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Broader Market Outshines Sensex In April : Top 10 Midcap Stocks To Track This Earnings Season

The S&P BSE Midcap index has risen a little over 5 per cent as compared to a 3.8 per cent rally seen in the BSE Sensex so far in the month of April. According to experts, mid and small cap shares have outperformed large cap peers on hopes that these companies may spring earning surprises over the next couple of quarters. The BSE Mid Cap Index has rallied 7.5% in the past two weeks, while the BSE Small Cap Index has surged nearly 15%. The Sensex has gained 5.75% in the same period. 

The CMX Midcap, CNX Smallcap and Nifty Junior hit all-time high on Monday on the back of sustained buying activity. This is a classical bull-run effect. The Nifty Midcap 50 has given a breakout. That is where possibly action would be and as long as the Nifty starts breaking below levels of around 8720-8730. The midcap stocks have been on a tear in India. They have outperformed the large caps by 20% over the past year and the P/E multiple is at a 25% premium, the highest in at least ten years.

The BSE Mid Cap Index is currently at 30.28 times, while the Sensex is trading at 19.95 times its reported earnings. The BSE Small Cap Index closed at 11,942 on Monday, which is about 20% below its all-time high of 14,239 made in January 2008. Some of the midcap and small cap indices have actually bounced back in a very big way after falling to multi-year low in 2013. "If we look at the calendar year 2013, we had a huge depression in the midcap and small cap stocks. That is somewhat now easing. FY15 has been a story of the midcap and small cap stocks and that is where the confidence has come back from a lot of equity investors.

We have collated a list of top 10 midcap companies which investors should look at buying on dips as they declare results for the quarter ended March 31 in April.

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Nifty Hovers Around 8800; HUL, Coal India, Bharti Gain 1-2%

The market remained firm amid consolidation in afternoon trade with the Nifty hovering around 8800 level. The Sensex rose 94.47 points to 28973.85 and the Nifty climbed 29.20 points to 8809.55. About 1634 shares have advanced, 1078 shares declined, and 189 shares are unchanged on the BSE. Overall sentiment remained positive as markets across the region gained as weak Chinese trade data intensified expectations for more economic stimulus measures from Beijing. According to analysts, corporate earnings will be the next medium-term trigger for the markets, analysts said. Bharti Airtel, BHEL, L&T, Coal India and HUL are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are GAIL, M&M, Hindalco, Sesa Sterlite and Tata Motors. Meanwhile, the total market capitalisation of nine of the top-10 Sensex firms advanced by Rs 1,02,729 crore last week, with RIL and TCS stealing the show with maximum rise in valuation. In the ranking of top-10 firms, TCS continued to retain its numero-uno position followed by RIL, ITC, ONGC, HDFC Bank, Infosys, CIL, Sun Pharma, SBI and HDFC.

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Sensex, Nifty Open Flat : HDFC, SBI, L&T Gainers

The market opened higher on first day of truncated week but immediately gave up gains to trade flat. The Sensex rose 5.03 points to 28884.41 while the Nifty fell 6.95 points to 8773.40. The broader markets continued to outperform benchmarks with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 0.3-0.6 percent. About 704 shares have advanced, 253 shares declined, and 88 shares are unchanged on the BSE. L&T, BHEL, HDFC, SBI, Cipla, Tata Steel and NMDC gained 0.5-1 percent while GAIL dropped 2 percent. Dr Reddy's Labs, M&M, HDFC Bank, Sesa Sterlite and Coal India declined 0.5-1 percent. The Indian rupee opened flat at 62.33 per dollar today against Friday's closing value of 62.31 a dollar. We also expect the USD sellers to take advantage of any upticks to 62.45-62.50/dollar. 

The USD selling interest will come from exporters and capital inflows." "The CPI data after market hours will be closely watched as it will be the first significant data point after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy last week," In the US, stocks closed higher on Friday with the Dow topping 18,000 for the first time in April as investors looked ahead to start of earnings season.

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China Equities Stay At 7-Year Highs Despite Trade Data Miss

Chinese shares led gains among regional peers to touch fresh seven-year highs early Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 struggled to find momentum as it remained a whisker away from the key 20,000-point mark. On Friday, US stocks finished higher, with the blue-chip Dow breaching 18,000 for the first time this month, as investors looked ahead to the official start of earnings season. While some companies like Alcoa have already reported quarterly earnings, the earnings season will get into full swing with reports from Dow components like JPMorgan Chase and Intel.

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Wall Street Week Ahead : US Stocks Look To Extend Breakout

US stocks are poised for more upward momentum even as uncertainty over oil prices and Greek debt negotiations keeps the market on tenterhooks. US company earnings and signs of an overall improving economy, alongside what appears to be the start of a bottoming in crude oil prices, have given equities support. After starting 2015 with its sharpest monthly drop in a year and a spike in volatility, the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX hit an intraday record on Friday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI reached its highest point so far this year. As "stocks have found a footing, people aren't as afraid of the potential negative" stemming from recent instability in oil prices and Greece. "That's allowed stocks to start breaking out of the channel that they've been stuck in since the beginning of the year." Volatility seems to abating. The CBOE Market Volatility Index .VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, oscillated between 15 and 24 for most of 2015, rising over its historical mean of 20 during 15 of the year's 30 trading days so far. Its 20-day moving average hit its highest since mid-2012 earlier this month. But on Friday, the VIX fell to its lowest level this year, briefly trading below 15. That, together with a rising market, could be a promising sign. "Market breadth, while it hasn't been wonderful, has been positive.

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GE Sparks Broad Wall St Rally : Indexes Post Weekly Gains

US stocks ended a strong week with a broad rally on Friday as investors lauded GE's decision to divest most of its high-risk GE Capital business and repurchase up to USd 50 billion of its shares. All 10 primary S&P 500 sectors ended up on the day but the S&P Industrials index, driven by gains in GE shares, was by far the best performer and rose 1.5 percent. General Electric rose 10.8 percent to USD 28.51, hitting its highest level since September 2008 after it said there was potential to return more than USD 90 billion to investors through 2018. Friday marked the biggest one-day jump for the stock, as well as the most active session, since March 2009. More than 351 million shares changed hands, making GE the most active name on the New York Stock Exchange by far. It was also the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 98.92 points, or 0.55 percent, to 18,057.65, the S&P 500 gained 10.88 points, or 0.52 percent, to 2,102.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 21.41 points, or 0.43 percent, to 4,995.98. For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains, helped by a pickup in merger activity. Investors are looking ahead to the first-quarter earnings season. While some companies reported this week, next week will see results from a number major firms, including several banks. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,782 to 1,232, for a 1.45-to-1 ratio on the upside; on the Nasdaq, 1,603 issues rose and 1,100 fell for a 1.46-to-1 ratio favoring advancers. The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 26 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite was recording 93 new highs and 21 new lows. About 5.47 billion shares traded on all U.S. platforms, according to BATS exchange data, down from the month-to-date average of 6.22 billion.

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Opening Bell : Nifty Likely To Open In Red : Eyes On IIP Data

The Indian market is expected to open in red today with the SGX Nifty, an indicator of pre-market opening, trading around 8805, down 5 points at 7:50 hrs. In important macro data, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for February will be released today. Bulls, however, remained in power on Thursday as the market cheered the India outlook upgrade by Moody’s. The Nifty ended above 8750 level supported by banks stocks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries. However, healthcare and telecom stocks were under pressure. Among global markets, in US, stocks closed higher after trading in a narrow range as investors digested a rebound in oil prices and looked for more signals on the timing of an interest rate hike.

Jobless claims rose by 14,000 last week, indicating that more Americans are seeking unemployment benefits. The increase follows a fifteen-year low reported in the previous week. The less volatile four-week average of claims, though, fell by 3,000. In Europe, equities closed higher as investors reacted to fresh economic data and auto stocks posted strong gains. Bank of England's monetary policy committee has left interest rates on hold at 0.5 percent and quantitative easing unchanged at 375 billion pounds. Greece makes 450 million euro loan payment to the International Monetary Fund. The payment to the IMF secured extra emergency lending for Greek banks and helped improve global risk sentiment. And in Asia, stocks are mixed ahead of China's inflation data; Nikkei trades just shy of 20,000 mark. And in Asia, stocks are mixed ahead of China's inflation data; Nikkei trades just shy of 20,000 mark. In the currency space, the dollar hovers at three week highs against a basket of major currencies as the hapless euro extended its decline. Among commodities, crude prices gain on strong German economic data and uncertainty about negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme. From precious metals space, gold slips below USD 1200 an ounce on a stronger dollar after Federal Reserve officials kept alive expectations for an interest rate rise some time this year despite recent weak economic data.

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