Saturday 29 March 2014
Monday 24 March 2014
(24th March - 28th March)
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENT OF THE WEEK
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Mar 24
|
EUR
|
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
49.8
|
49.7
|
EUR
|
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
|
54.7
|
54.8
| |
Mar 25
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate
|
110.9
|
111.3
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
78.7
|
78.1
| |
USD
|
New Home Sales
|
447K
|
468K
| |
Mar 26
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
|
0.3%
|
1.1%
|
USD
|
Durable Goods Orders
|
1.1%
|
-1.0%
| |
USD
|
Flash Services PMI
|
54.2
|
53.3
| |
USD
|
Crude Oil Inventories
|
-
|
5.9M
| |
Mar 27
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
326K
|
320K
|
USD
|
Pending Home Sales m/m
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
Pending Home Sales m/m
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
Natural Gas Storage
|
-
|
-48B
| |
Mar 28
|
EUR
|
German Prelim CPI m/m
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
EUR
|
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
| |||
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index m/m
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
Personal Spending m/m
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
| |
USD
|
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
|
80.6
|
79.9
|
GOLD
Gold Little Changed After Fifth Monthly Drop on Global Economy
Gold swung between gains and losses, after the longest run of monthly declines since 1997, as investors weighed improving global economic data amid speculation that central banks will press on with stimulus.
Gold for immediate delivery was at $1,579.41 an ounce at 3:46 p.m. In Singapore from $1,579.58 yesterday. Prices are set to decline 0.1 percent this week after dropping 5.1 percent in February for the fifth monthly drop as investment holdings plunged 4.2 percent. Bullion for April delivery was little changed at $1,578.90 on the Comex in New York.
Prices fell 5.7 percent this year after a 12-year rally in 2012 as investor cut holdings in exchange-traded products to the lowest since September. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said this week that the bank is far from exiting stimulus, while U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the bank’s asset purchases. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the commodity’s price cycle had turned as the U.S. economy recovers.
Global recovery
Jobless claims in the U.S. dropped in the week that ended Feb. 23, the government said yesterday. German unemployment unexpectedly fell in February amid signs that Europe’s biggest economy is recovering, and Japan’s industrial production in January rose for the second straight month. Two Chinese manufacturing indexes showed today the world’s second-largest economy expanded at a slower-than-estimated pace.
Cash bullion of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange lost 1 percent to 320.70 yuan a gram ($1,602.89 an ounce). Most-active futures were little changed at 29,550 rupees per 10 grams ($1,686.40 an ounce) on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Silver for immediate delivery was little changed at $28.53 an ounce, poised for a fourth weekly loss. Platinum dropped as much as 0.6 percent to $1,574.37 an ounce, the lowest since Jan. 8. The metal is set for a third weekly fall. Palladium declined 0.4 percent to $725.85 an ounce.
CRUDEOIL
Oil Falls to 2013 Low on China, Europe Manufacturing
West Texas Intermediate oil slipped to the lowest level this year as manufacturing expanded less than forecast in China and contracted in Europe, bolstering concern that fuel demand will decline.
Futures fell 1.5 percent after data showed China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month while factory output declined in the euro area and the U.K. The factory data helped the U.S. Dollar strengthen against the British pound and the euro. A stronger dollar curbs the appeal of raw materials to investors.
Crude oil for April delivery fell $1.37 to $90.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Dec. 24. Prices dropped 2.6 percent this week. The volume of all futures traded was down 1.5 percent from the 100-day average at 3:10 p.m.
Brent oil for April settlement dropped 98 cents, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at $110.40 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the lowest close since Jan. 15. Volume was 52 percent above the 100-day average. The European benchmark grade traded at a premium of $19.72 to WTI, up from $19.33 yesterday.
Chinese Manufacturing
In China, the world’s biggest oil-consuming country after the U.S., manufacturing slowed last month, the PMI report from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in Beijing showed. The reading fell to 50.1 last month from 50.4 in January.
A gauge of U.K. Manufacturing based on a survey of purchasing managers slid to 47.9 last month, according to Market Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. In the euro region, a factory gauge was unchanged in February at 47.9, marking a 19th month of contraction, according to a separate Market report today.
Futures rebounded from the day’s lows as U.S. consumer confidence increased and a report showed that manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since June 2011. The Institute for Supply Management said its factory index rose to 54.2, the highest reading since June 2011.
Dollar Rally
The economic data helped the dollar climb to the highest level against the euro in almost three months after Italian elections this week delivered a four-way parliamentary split. The U.S. currency also rose above $1.50 against the pound for the first time since July 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities fell as much as 1.3 percent to 640.03, the lowest level since Dec. 31.
Saudi Production
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, pumped 9 million barrels a day, the least since May 2011, according to the survey. Output was down 100,000 barrels from January and 900,000 barrels from May, when production reached the highest since at least January 1989.
U.S. crude inventories increased 1.13 million barrels to 377.5 million last week, the highest level since July, a Feb. 27 Energy Information Administration report showed. Output climbed to 7.12 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 15, the most since August 1992.
Net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate oil held by money managers, or wagers on rising prices, climbed to 221,534 in the week ended Feb. 15, the highest level since March 2012, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 463,360 contracts as of 3:11 p.m. It totaled 455,826 contracts yesterday, 14 percent below the three-month average. Open interest was 1.66 million contracts.
BASE METALS
Copper, Aluminum Fall to Three-Month Lows on China Data
Copper and aluminum fell to three- month lows on signals that manufacturing may sag in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals.
Two gauges of Chinese manufacturing showed a pace of expansion that was lower than analysts estimated, signaling the nation’s economic recovery may be losing steam. Combined copper inventories monitored by exchanges in Shanghai, London and New York have climbed to the highest since May 2010.
Copper futures for May delivery dropped 1.3 percent to settle at $3.501 a pound at 1:18 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $3.4725, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 19.
On the London Metal Exchange, aluminium for delivery in three months fell 1.5 percent to $1,975 a metric ton. Earlier, the price touched $1,956, the lowest since Nov. 23. The metal dropped for the 10th straight session, extending the longest slump since June.
Copper on the LME fell 1.4 percent to $7,703 a ton ($3.49 a pound). Lead, zinc and tin also dropped, while nickel rose.
In a report titled “Buying the Dip,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today that copper will rebound as China’s imports pick up and the U.S. housing market recovers. The price may rise to $9,000 a ton in six months, the bank said.
Industrial metals and energy led commodities lower today. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials erased this year’s gain.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
MCX GOLD APRIL
· Resistance 2 – 32547
· Resistance 1 – 30875
· Support 1 – 29167
· Support 2 – 27477
MCX SILVER MAY
· Resistance 2 – 52647
· Resistance 1 – 47945
· Support 1 – 43243
· Support 2 – 38541
MCX CRUDE OIL APRIL
· Resistance 2 – 6531
· Resistance 1 – 6219
· Support 1 – 5907
· Support 2 – 5595
MCX COPPER APRIL
· Resistance 2 – 447
· Resistance 1 – 415
· Support 1 – 384
· Support 2 – 352
MCX NICKELMARCH
· Resistance 2 – 1085
· Resistance 1 – 1012
· Support 1 – 938
· Support 2 – 864
MCX LEAD MARCH
· Resistance 2 – 147
· Resistance 1 – 133
· Support 1 – 120
· Support 2 – 106
MCX ZINC MARCH
· Resistance 2 – 127
· Resistance 1 – 122
· Support 1 – 117
· Support 2 – 112
MCX ALUMINIUM MARCH
· Resistance 2 – 110
· Resistance 1 – 105
· Support 1 – 100
· Support 2 – 95
MCX NATURAL GAS MARCH
· Resistance 2 – 315
· Resistance 1 – 286
· Support 1 – 256
· Support 2 – 226
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