SGX Nifty Indicates Negative Opening For Indian Markets

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SGX Nifty is at 11467, down 54 points. We expect another weak start to the week as global cues turn extremely volatile after the US markets saw its worst drubbing of stocks in 2019. With yields hitting fresh lows globally expect monitory policy easing in the RBI policy in early April.

On Friday, Nifty closed lower in anticipation of the US selloff as the index closed near the lows of last fortnight. Nifty Media, PSU banks, and auto indices were the biggest losers with the broader market also feeling the pain.

Global market: Asian markets opened gap down with the Japanese Nikkei trading down ~600 points in early trade as the dollar weakness saw exporters get sold into the Japanese markets. Asian indices have seen an extremely strong rally in the last 3 months as trade talks resolutions and valuations were extremely compelling. Now, we expect more consolidation as globally risk aversion sees equities bear the brunt.

US Market: US stocks see biggest sell off for 2019 as Dow Jones cracks over 460 points, while Nasdaq falls 2.5%. Yield curve inversion sees pessimism deepen over lower growth as stocks witness huge fall with 10 year bond yields hitting 2.43% the lowest in over 3 years. Oil prices also retreat as global growth fears again resurface to hit sentiment.

FII/DII Data: In yesterday’s trading session, FIIs bought 1375cr worth of stock in cash, whereas DIIs sold 1323cr worth of stock. In the derivative market, FIIs bought 550cr of Index futures and bought 800cr worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FIIs sold 1885cr worth of stock futures and sold 62crs stock options.

FII View: In Index future segment, FIIs index future long/short ratio continued to trend higher, the ratio currently stands at 1.9x vs 1.8x on the account of marginal unwinding of short positions to the tune 8311 contracts of index futures. However, they created heavy amount of long positions to the tune of 30087 contracts in speculative index put options, indicating a formation of protective hedging positions against their overall bullish positions in index future. Their current positioning indicates a negative bias for today’s trade.

FII	OI(000's)	% Chg	% Chg Since Expiry	Long/Short Ratio	Long/Short Since Expiry
Future Index Long	216	1	129	1.9	1.7
Future Index Short	112	(7)	38
Option Index Call Long	288	(2)	(79)	2.7	2.7
Option Index Call Short	108	4	(92)
Option Index Put Long	371	9	(79)	1.4	1.3
Option Index Put Short	271	3	(85)