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Bulls took charge of D-Street on Wednesday and pushed Sensex higher by over 300 points while Nifty50 reclaimed 11,300 levels to close at 11,369. Remember investors lost over Rs 4 lakh crore in market cap on the BSE in first two trading sessions of the week.
The good news is that rupee recovered from a record low of Rs 72.91/USD after reports came out suggesting that PM Modi will hold economic review meet over the weekend.
The rupee lost almost 4 percent its value in the last 10 days of incessant depreciation.
Wednesday’s low 11,250 in Nifty has now become a strong support for the short-term.
The big news comes from the macro front.
CPI inflation has come in at 3.69 percent for August against expectations of 4 percent helped by a high base effect which will provide support for the next 2-3 months.
Experts say that the softness in the food inflation is likely to keep consumer inflation under check despite the rise in energy prices and depreciation of the rupee. Sharekhan expects the RBI to wait and watch how the inflation pans out during the festive season before taking another repo rate hike.
IIP growth has come in at a steady 6.6 percent which is higher than our forecast of 5 percent. Cumulative growth is 5.4 percent, which is encouraging.
Experts are attributing the cyclical uptick in IIP to higher government revenue spending, depreciation in rupee/dollar, rising household leverage and improving income levels.
"IIP growth in FY19 is likely to accelerate to an average of 6-6.5 percent against 4.4 percent in FY18; up till now the average for Apr-July’18 is at 5.5 percent," Dhananjay Sinha, Head of Research, Economist & Strategist, Emkay Global Financial Services said.
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