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The market continues to gradually move northward, amid consolidation, after touching its 2018 lows in March (Nifty fell below the 10,000 mark). It took into its strides all negatives: US-China trade tensions, crude oil volatility, rupee depreciation versus the dollar and rising inflationary concerns.
The key factors that are driving the market higher and propelling it towards its earlier record high of 11,171 (touched on January 29) on the Nifty are hopes of a recovery in earnings and economic growth, and continuous support from domestic institutional investors (despite outflows from foreign institutional investors).
Domestic investors are still hoping for a continuity in economy policies, though there is political risk emerging, which may cap the upside.
Given the challenges on the macro front and increasing political headwinds faced by the Bharatiya Janata Party heading into the 2019 general elections, Prabhudas Lilladher expects traders to remain cautious. In this uncertainty, the research house does not expect valuations to expand. On the contrary, it sees valuations remaining closer to the 10 year average of 17.1 times.
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