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The Nifty posted its third consecutive weekly positive close last week. The daily chart shows that price action over these three weeks is characteristic of a pullback. This means the move has multiple overlapping structures and is unlikely to develop into a larger rally. The daily Bollinger Bands have flattened over the period, which caps the upside at the upper band.
On a higher timeframe - monthly chart, the Nifty has formed a Doji pattern for May. A Doji is a sign of exhaustion in the market. Thus, we are likely to witness a correction unless the high of the Doji pattern (10,929) gets taken out.
In terms of Fibonacci retracements, the pullback over the last few sessions has retraced 78.6 percent of the fall from 10,929 to 10,417 levels. Thus, the risk-reward ratio at this level is quite attractive to create short positions with a reversal above 10,929 levels. On the downside, 10,417-10,300 will be targets to watch out for.
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