Tuesday, 31 July 2018

Podcast | Stock Picks Of The Day 3 Large Caps That Could Return 11-17%

Posted by suhani varma on Tuesday, July 31, 2018 with No comments

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The Nifty started the week on a healthy note by closing above the 11,300 mark for the first time on Monday. Midcap and smallcap indices have started outsmarting benchmarks since last week and have risen sharply from recent lows.

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, midcap and smallcap indices are down 11 percent and 18 percent, respectively, while the Nifty is up 7.5 percent. Going forward, one can expect this performance gap to narrow, with midcap and smallcaps outperforming from here on.

Oscillators are showing strength in the current market upswing. The Nifty is currently placed above all important moving average parameters indicating a bullish trend on all timeframes. Its previous record high of 11,171 would now interchange its role as short term support. Positional support is placed 11,078.

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The Nifty had formed an Inside Bar on the weekly chart in the penultimate week. Last week, the pattern broke out on the upside, leading to significant upside.

On the way up, the benchmark index has crossed its record high of 11,171 and entered into uncharted territory.


The broader market indices, though significantly below their respective record highs, have witnessed a sharp recovery throughout last week and formed large bullish candles on the weekly chart.In case of the Nifty, the swing low of 10,925 now becomes a major support. From a near term perspective, the recent gap area on the daily chart - 11,210–11,185 - should act as a key support zone. The momentum indicators on various timeframes are in line with the rally.

On the higher side, we are targeting 11,450 for the short term with a potential to stretch higher over the medium term.

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Trade Setup For Tuesday Top 15 Things To Know Before Opening Bell

Posted by suhani varma on Tuesday, July 31, 2018 with No comments

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The Nifty50, after opening at fresh record high, erased gains after first hour of trade but managed to recoup those losses and remained higher for major part of the session on Monday.

The index continued its positive momentum, forming a 'Hanging Man' kind of pattern on the daily candlestick charts indicating that there could be some consolidation or correction going ahead.

A 'Hanging Man' is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern which is usually formed at the end of an uptrend or at the top (362-point rally from its recent low of 10,957.10 recorded on July 19). In a perfect 'Hanging Man' pattern either there will be a small upper shadow or no upper shadow at all, a small body and long lower shadow.

The Nifty50 after opening at fresh record high of 11,296.65 hit 10,300-mark for the first time but corrected after first hour of trade to hit day's low of 11,261.45. The index managed to recoup those losses in late morning trade and hit a new intraday high of 11,328.10.

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What a day for the Indian market! Bulls have taken complete control of D-Street as Sensex hit a fresh record high of 37,533 while Nifty rose above 11,300 levels for the first time to hit a record high of 11,328.

The street ramped up PSU Bank stocks and the industry facing private sector banks after results from Bank of Baroda and ICICI bank enthused investors.

The most positive development, however, was the advances outnumbering declines for the sixth day on the trot, a phenomenon, which the markets have not seen earlier in 2018.


Overall, the markets have resumed the inherent uptrend, and the momentum looks like it is here to stay in the near-term.

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InterGlobe Aviation hits fresh 52-week low post Q1 results: InterGlobe Aviation slipped nearly 10 percent in morning trade to hit a fresh 52-week low of 905.20 on the BSE after the operator of low-cost carrier IndiGo, has reported a massive 96.6 percent fall in first-quarter net profit, dented by higher fuel prices and the adverse impact of forex.

Profit for the quarter declined to Rs 27.8 crore from Rs 811.1 crore in June quarter 2017.

The global brokerage firm, JP Morgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight post Q1 results and has also slashed its target price to Rs 900 from Rs 1,150 earlier.

Q1 earnings impacted on all fronts. The global investment bank expects the industry to either take up pricing or cut back on capacity addition.
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Indian Markets Continue To Outperform Set To Open Near Record Highs

Posted by suhani varma on Tuesday, July 31, 2018 with No comments


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SGX Nifty is currently trading flat down 10 points at 11333. Markets have witnessed a stellar run in the past few trading session and bulls would be hoping for the run to extend.

Frontline companies have delivered a good set of numbers which has given support to the rally.

Power Grid, Tata Motors, UPL, and Vedanta are some of the large-cap companies that are set to announce their Q1 results later in the day.

Major Asian markets are trading with a negative bias at present; Nikkei is down 0.33%, Hang Seng is down 0.44%, while Shanghai Composite is trading 0.14% lower.

US Markets: Stocks ended in the red yesterday with technology stocks facing much of the brunt. The Dow and S&P 500 slid 0.6% to 25,306.82 and 2,802.60 respectively while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 1.4% to 7,630.00

European markets also closed in the red yesterday with the FTSE down 0.01%; CAC was down 0.37% while DAX closed 0.49% lower.

FII Data: In yesterday’s trading session, FIIs sold 234 crores stock in the cash market whereas DIIs bought 48 crores worth of stock. In the derivative market, FIIs sold 242 crores of Index futures and bought 145 crores worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FIIs bought 1003 crores worth of stock futures and sold 26 crores stock options.

FII View: In yesterday’s trading session, FII created bullish positions in the derivatives market which is deduced by the fact that they created 6539 long contracts in Index Futures while simultaneously creating 9297 long contracts in Index Call options and 12510 short contracts in Index Put options. The long-short ratio in Index Futures currently stands at 1.4x.

FIIOI
(in000's)
% Chg% Chg 
Since Expiry
Long/
Short Ratio
Long/Short
 Since Expiry
Index Long1435211.41.0
Index Short102821
Index Call Long1696173.91.1
Index Call Short43(3)9
Index Put Long235122.10.8
Index Put Short1131233
 
Support / Resistance: IntradayNifty: 11319
S1 – 11250S2-11180
R1-  11375R2 -11420
 
Support / Resistance: IntradayBank Nifty: 27842
S1 – 27600S2-27400
R1 - 28000R2 -28200


Nifty Highest Open Interest:
Call: 11500 / Put: 11000
Bank Nifty Highest Open interest: (2nd Aug 2018 Expiry)
Call: 28000 / Put: 27500
Securities in Ban Period: Nil
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Monday, 30 July 2018


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Indices are soaring higher into uncharted territory without any interruption. Momentum is seen in state-run banks, whereas Nifty Metal and Midcap indices bounced back from their lows.


The suggested Double Top Buy pattern on the Point & Figure chart has got achieved. The Nifty's 5-day simple moving average (DMA) stands around 11,159, which indicates that the bull run is intact unless the index trades below it. The benchmark index has a higher gap unfilled around 11,185 levels. So, the possibility of prices retracing to fill the gap cannot be ruled out.


The Nifty has also given a classical flag pattern breakout. The target as per the pattern is 11,400, which is supportive for the bulls. It previous high of around 11,171 levels can act as support too.


Looking at the options data, the highest put open interest is seen around 11,000 strike, 

followed by 11,200 strike. Maximum call OI is seen around 11,500 levels, followed by 11,400. The data signifies an immediate trading range between 11500 and 11,100 levels.

We expect sideways to bullish movement in coming sessions, within a range of 11,450 on the higher side and 11,100 on the lower side. Stock specific action can also be seen. If the Nifty closes below 11,120 levels, it can correct to 10,930/10,880 levels.

The Bank Nifty is trading higher after a breakout from the tight range of 27,200 and 26,650. We expect sideways to bullish movement in a 27,700-27,300 range. The psychological mark of 28,000 can act as a resistance, while support lies around 27,350 levels.

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Trade Setup for Monday Top 15 things to know before Opening Bell

Posted by suhani varma on Monday, July 30, 2018 with No comments

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Bulls roared on Dalal Street on Friday as follow up buying helped frontline indices end at record closing highs. After opening higher, the Nifty50 remained on upward path throughout the session, forming robust bullish candle on the daily candlestick chart as well as weekly chart.

All sectoral as well as broader indices participated in the rally barring PSU Bank. FMCG and Metal indices were the biggest gainers, rising 2 percent each while the Nifty Midcap index was up 0.9 percent.

The 30-share BSE Sensex, which hit record high for the 21st time in 2018, closed 352.21 points higher at 37,336.85, driven by ITC which was the biggest gainer with 5 percent rally after Q1 earnings.

It was a strong start to the August series as the Nifty50 rallied sharply to hit fresh intraday all-time high of 11,283.40. The index, which did not fall below the 11,200 levels Friday, closed 111.10 points or 0.99 percent higher at 11,278.40.

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The Indian equity market traded higher on strong momentum led by positive earnings sentiment and fading of global concerns. It managed to break out from the previous upper range to set record lifetime highs.

The Nifty after taking a marginal breather in the July 21 week, registered a breakout to touch a new high of 11,283. Despite closing marginally negative in Wednesday’s trade, the index recouped the losses in the next two consecutive sessions and registered a weekly gain of about 268 points.

It closed slightly below the new higher band placed at 11,278, up 2.43 percent on a weekly basis. After forming a small bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart in Friday's session, it formed a big white body pattern on the weekly chart.In the short term, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. The weekly relative strength index stood at 70, indicating a positive divergence. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) continued to trade with a bullish trajectory as it stood above the signal line.

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Sensex, Nifty and Bank Nifty scaled fresh all-time high on the back of sustained positive momentum across sectors in the past few weeks. The quarterly earnings season is being very strong with positive surprises from cement sector, ACC and Ambuja; consumer sector, ITC and Asian Paints; financial services, Shriram Transport & M&M Financial Services; and pharma, Biocon and Dr Reddy’s Lab.

Crude continues to remain in corrective phase below USD 75 per barrel auguring well for the economy and the oil marketing companies.


Nifty has ended 2.4 percent higher, while midcap and smallcaps outperformed to gain by 4 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, for the week.

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What a week for Indian markets. Benchmark indices rose over 2 percent each for the week to hit fresh record highs. The August expiry which started with rollovers of 74 percent is a sign that more long positions got rolled over in the current series which is a healthy sign.

More fresh highs are in the offing for benchmark indices before we take a breather from here on. For the coming week, earnings will be the focus point or one factor which could decide the trend for the markets.

Around 450 companies are scheduled to report results this week for the quarter ended June in this week which include largecap names like HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, ONGC, Axis Bank, and Titan Company.

The big event which will be watched by investors will be the MPC meet starting July 30. The decision of the MPC will be announced at 14:30 hours IST on August 1.

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Focus To Remain On Q1 Earnings As Markets Set To Open At Record Highs

Posted by suhani varma on Monday, July 30, 2018 with No comments

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SGX Nifty is currently trading in the green, up 13 points at 11333. Markets are expected to continue the positive momentum from Friday's trading session, backed by strong earnings from frontline companies. Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, Bank of Baroda all posted their earnings after markets hours on Friday and it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to these. HDFC Ltd, Tech Mahindra, and Axis Bank are some of the large-cap companies set to announce their Q1 results later in the day.

Global markets: Major Asian markets are trading with a negative bias at present; Nikkei is down 0.53%, Hang Seng is down 0.17%, while Shanghai Composite is trading 0.05% lower.

US Markets: Stocks ended in the red in Friday’s trading session after tech stocks witnessed yet another session of heavy selling pressure. The Dow fell 0.3% to 25,451.06, the Nasdaq plunged 1.5% to 7,737.42 and the S&P 500 dipped 0.7% to 2,818.82.

European markets ended in the green on Friday with the FTSE up 0.50%; CAC was up 0.57%, while DAX closed 0.40% higher.

FII Data: In Friday's trading session FIIs bought 738 crores stock in the cash market whereas DIIs bought 406 crores worth of stock. In the derivative market, FIIs bought 711 crores of Index futures and sold 197 crores worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FIIs bought 652 crores worth of stock futures and bought 124 crores stock options.

FII View: In Friday's trading session, FII created bullish positions in the derivatives market, which is deduced by the fact that they created 18161 long contracts in Index Futures, while simultaneously creating 15103 long contracts in Index Call options. The long-short ratio in Index Futures currently stands at 1.5x.

FIIOI
(in000's)
% Chg% Chg 
Since Expiry
Long/
Short Ratio
Long/Short
 Since Expiry
Index Long13715151.51.0
Index Short941111
Index Call Long16010103.61.0
Index Call Short441212
Index Put Long234112.30.9
Index Put Short1011818
 
Support / Resistance: IntradayNifty: 11278
S1 – 11200S2-11080
R1-  11320R2 -11374
 
Support / Resistance: IntradayBank Nifty: 27634
S1 – 27400S2-27200
R1 - 27800R2 -28000


Nifty Highest Open Interest:
Call: 11500 / Put: 11000
Bank Nifty Highest Open interest: (2nd Aug 2018 Expiry)
Call: 27800 / Put: 27000
Securities in Ban Period: Nil
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