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SGX Nifty is at 10618 level. For today, we expect higher volatility as we have expiry tomorrow. We should see a weaker start with the second half likely to witnessing a value buying and short covering.
On Monday, the Nifty saw another down day in line with global cues as profit booking continued even as local funds bought stock. The expiry of derivative contracts coupled with holiday-shortened week saw the global weakness spread to Indian stocks with metals, reality, and media stocks taking a beating.
Global markets: The Japanese Nikkei saw its worst December on the record as it fell over 5% on Christmas day trading below the 20,000-mark. For today, we are seeing some pull-back, which is evident from being heavily oversold positions. Other Asian indices may also trade with higher volatility as yearend collateral selling takes a toll on leveraged investors and institutions.
US markets: US stocks witnessed the worst December in many decades as sentiment hits bottom. Markets react negatively to President Trump 'tweets' as he criticizes Federal Reserve over monitory policy and blames Democrats for the government spending bill passage. Brent oil hits $50/barrels as it adds to bearishness due to lower global growth forecast.
FII/DII Data: In Monday’s trading session, FIIs sold 577cr stock in the cash market, whereas DIIs bought 186cr worth of stock. In the derivative market, FIIs bought 205cr of Index futures and bought 1688cr worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FIIs sold 645cr worth of stock futures and sold 185cr stock options.
FII View: FIIs reduced their positions in Index Futures in Monday’s trading session, which is deduced by the fact that they closed out 6374 short contracts in the segment. However, they created 23217 long contracts in Index Put Options. The long-short ratio in Index Futures currently stands at 0.8x since the start of the December series which is a bearish sign.
| FII | OI (in000's) | % Chg | % Chg Since Expiry | Long/ Short Ratio | Long/Short Since Expiry |
| Index Long | 188 | (1) | 34 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Index Short | 209 | (3) | 58 | ||
| Index Call Long | 244 | (1) | 27 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Index Call Short | 95 | (6) | 49 | ||
| Index Put Long | 416 | 6 | 65 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Index Put Short | 157 | 2 | 56 |
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