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The persistent sell-off in the US market eventually put break on an ongoing optimism seen in our market and Nifty nosedived in last Friday’s session. During this week, Nifty tumbled further after forming a Bearish Divergence pattern and registered a low of 10,534.55 on Wednesday. Subsequently, the selling pressure exhausted and index saw decent recovery in line with the global peers.Looking at the daily chart, Wednesday’s low coincided with the lower band of Bollinger band which acted as an immediate support. At this juncture, Nifty retraced nearly 61.8% of its entire fall drawn from the top of 10,985.15 to the bottom of 10,534.55.
At this juncture, the volatility on index is significantly high, therefore, we are waiting for momentum to cool-off as reward-to-risk ratio at this point of time is not favourable. As far as the levels are concerned, 10,830–10,850 zone will be a strong resistance and any sustainable move beyond this level will allow Nifty to rally and retest its recent swing high of 10,985.15. On the flip side, 10,660 likely to act as an immediate support below which Nifty will slide further towards 10,500.
Rollovers from December to January series were inline were expectation. However, short rollovers were seen in metal, auto, cement and pharma sector and that will put pressure on market in short term. Minor pullback is expected in these sectors in the coming week, however, these short covering pullbacks will be short in nature and fresh shorts can be initiated at higher levels in these sectors whereas long rollovers were seen in PSU banking, NBFCs, capital goods and technology sectors and one can expect positive move in coming weeks in them.
On the higher side, aggressive call writing has been seen at 11,000 strike option and that will act as stiff supply zone for Nifty, whereas put writing at 10,500 will prove as strong support. Overall, we expected broader indices to trade in 10,500-10,950 range and breach of this range on either side will further set the direction of indices in short term.
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