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The S&P BSE Sensex is trading at 26,676, down by 22 points, while NSE Nifty is trading at 8,200 down by 21 points.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley expects the benefits of demonetisation to seep into the economy as the move towards a cashless system will bring in more people into the tax net. Expectations are a rise in tax collections will allow a lower tax regime in future. For now, tax revenues of the state governments for the current financial year are likely to be weaker than budgeted, according to ICRA.
The world and its markets are waiting for the outcome of the Fed meet which is underway since Tuesday; a hike is anticipated by a large section of the market. Global fund flow seems to be coming into equities as investors reportedly invested over US $ 1 billion into passive funds tracking emerging markets while bond exchange-traded funds saw some selling. The rupee shed around 12 paise even as traders remained cautious ahead of the FOMC rate decision.
At a macroeconomic level, withdrawal of old currency notes (demonetisation move) can lead to further short term deflationary effects on perishable commodities. Although there is a threat that sowing activity in the coming months can be impaired due to cash crunch in the rural areas, we sense that prevalent headline inflation remains well below RBI’s target rate of 5%. Moreover, recent fall in food prices has created lot of cushion for any inflationary risks emanating from recovery in oil prices and weak Indian Rupee. Indisputably, the consensus calls for policy action before the end of this fiscal year.
After rallying yesterday and closing on a slightly weaker note, Asian indices today opened on a mixed note, the primary factor is that the investors are taking a cautious route ahead of the outcome of the US monetary policy meet that is to will be conducted later today. When the market opened, Japan's Nikkei 225 opened at 19,270, Hong Kong's Hang Seng started at 22,596, China's Shanghai Composite opened at 3,149, and Singapore's Straits Times opened at 2,963.
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