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IIP growth remained strong at 7.1 percent YoY in February 2018, higher than our estimate of 6.2 percent.
IIP in last 4 months have been trending in the range of 7-8 percent. The recovery in growth has also been broadbased and is further accentuated by a lower base.
Significant growth in automobiles and in capital goods oriented exports such as machinery has shifted the trajectory of growth upwards.
IIP growth in FY19 is likely to escalate further to an average of 6-6.5 percent from FY18E 4.6 percent.
While on other hand, Mar’18 CPI reading moderated to 4.3 percent YoY from 4.4 percent in Feb’18, in line with our expectation of 4.3 percent. However, Q4FY18 CPI at 4.7 percent is a tad higher than RBI’s estimate of 4.5 percent YoY.
Taking into consideration the lower food inflation and higher core rural inflation, we believe that the rural distress has not yet abated completely. Rise in core inflation and increasing upward risk to overall CPI is likely to prompt RBI to withdraw its Aug’17 25bps rate cut. Our expectation for FY19 average inflation is at 5.6-6.0 percent.
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