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In the past, Sensex earnings have looked suppressed due to higher provisioning by banks, which impacted their profitability. Resolutions by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) been quite encouraging as a number of cases have seen substantial interest from potential suitors. This may lead to lower-than-expected haircuts and a resultant reversal of provisions.
The recent bond yield correction and spreading of bond portfolio losses over the next four quarters will provide some cushion to banking sector earnings. A higher supply of government securities, particularly from state governments, along with a further rise in crude oil prices, is a cause for concern for markets in the near-term.
The re-rating of equity markets from this point onwards will hinge on Q4 FY18 corporate earnings. The Q3 numbers showed initial signs of corporate profitability limping back, but the next few quarter numbers shall define the market direction. Two things that should work in favour of a recovery in corporate earnings are: a) On a comparative YoY basis, they should reflect better numbers on a low base due to demonetisation and normalisation of disruptions caused by rollout of the Goods & Services Tax last fiscal; and b) Expectations of a pick-up in the reported GST numbers should have incremental flow of business to the organised sector, albeit in a gradual manner.
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