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Nifty closed below all short-term moving averages, 5-DMA (11,000), 20-DMA (11,335) and 50-DMA (11,344) putting the market in a strong bear grip.
The strength of bear can be seen from the fact that market opened gap up consecutively for last three trading sessions but on each of these sessions, it closed sharply lower.
India VIX is trading at the highest level of the week around 17.00 and gained almost 10% in last week along with fall of prices implies higher volatility in the market with a bearish bias.
At this juncture, Friday’s low of 10,850, which coincided with the 50% retracement of its entire swing move from the bottom of 9,951.90 to 11,760.20, will act as a strong support.
Also, the previous daily swing high which was earlier acting as a strong resistance had reversed its role and is now likely to act as a strong support.
If the index sustains below 10,850 then the pressure would increase on the downside and we may see Nifty testing its 200-DMA which is placed near 10,770.
On the other hand, the 11,150 – 11,170 levels are strong resistance zone and only a decisive move beyond this level will attract fresh buying interest.
For this week, we expect broader indices may see a minor pullback and Nifty may see up move towards 11100-11150 levels. However, overall undertone remains bearish and any kind of short covering move can be utilized to exit from trading long positions and initiating fresh shorts.
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