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The Nifty50 formed a Doji-like candle on Thursday which signals indecisiveness among bulls and bears. However, the demand emerged at major support areas of 10,100.
We expect the index to undergo a base formation with positive bias amid elevated volatility in the broad range of 10,100-10,450 in the coming weeks.
Historically, within a structural uptrend, secondary corrections of 12-15% are considered normal bull market corrections that provide long-term buying opportunities.
Time-wise, since the beginning of CY18, each directional leg in the Nifty has lasted for seven to eight weeks. In the present scenario, the index has maintained the rhythm by correcting for a seven successive week.
As we are in the eighth week, with 14 percent correction over the past seven weeks already behind us, we expect the index to maintain its rhythm and the ongoing corrective decline to mature as we approach price/time wise maturity.
The immediate hurdle for the index is placed around 10,450-levels — being the confluence of the current week high and the bearish gap area of last Friday.
The Nifty50 is placed at its long-term trend line support amid oversold readings of momentum oscillator (around 10).
We believe the index will hold the trend line and undergo base formation in coming weeks. Thus, investors should utilise the current decline to accumulate quality stocks in a staggered manner.
Nifty has major support at 10100-10150 levels being the confluence of the following technical parameters:
a) 80 percent retracement of the September 2017 and August 2018 rally (9688-11760) at 10100
b) The recent low of the first week of October also placed at 10138 level
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