Sensex, Nifty To Open On A Negative Note Tracking Asian Peers

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SGX Nifty is currently 31 points down at 10269 levels. For today, early morning weakness can be seen in line with unwinding of derivative leverage positions and global cues, however, second half could see a much needed pull back as bond yields fall along with oil prices and over sold markets see pull back.

Nifty had its worst week ever as the index collapsed another 300 points on Friday even as the Reserve Bank surprised all by leaving the repo rate unchanged. This however, saw the rupee nosedive to Rs74.33/$ before recovering to close at Rs73.76/$. With foreign investors looking to sell for every small reason the currency weakness over shadowed the status quo on rates and saw the Nifty decline sharply with blue chips like Reliance leading the fall.

Global markets: Asian indices opened weak with the Chinese market opening after a week long holiday and expected to follow the weak Asian cues. The Chinese Central bank cut its CRR by 100 basis points for the 3rd time in three months to instill growth momentum by easing liquidity. This could see the Chinese off shore Yuan trade weaker against the green back but could also see Chinese banks gain.

US markets: US stocks ended lower as rising yields and strength in US dollar see technology stocks lead profit booking. Oil prices cool down as Russia, Saudi Arabia assure more supply, while yields close at 3.23% a seven year high as the US growth and unemployment numbers beat street estimate.

FII data: In Friday’s trading session, heavy selling pressure was witnessed from FIIs. They sold positions worth 3370cr in the cash market, whereas DIIs bought 1920cr worth of stock. In the derivative market, FIIs sold 1610cr of Index futures and bought 1442cr worth of Index options. In the Stock futures segment, FIIs bought 119cr worth of stock futures and bought 68cr stock options.

FII View: In Friday’s trading session, FII continued to create bearish positions in the Derivative segment, which is deduced by the fact that they created 21045 fresh short contracts in Index Futures while, simultaneously creating 44316 long contracts in Index Put Options. The long-short ratio in Index Futures is also trading at 0.7 series, which is a bearish signal.

FII	OI (in000's)	% Chg	% Chg Since Expiry	Long/ Short Ratio	Long/Short  Since Expiry
Index Long	101	1	7	0.6	0.7
Index Short	177	14	59
Index Call Long	220	9	17	1.3	0.6
Index Call Short	174	22	112
Index Put Long	381	13	50	2.6	1.0
Index Put Short	145	12	45