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The Nifty has delivered a 12 percent annual return in INR terms over the past five years despite a weak 4 percent corporate earnings CAGR.
CLSA expects earnings to dramatically improve to a 15-20 percent CAGR over the next two years as corporate earnings return to normal with the bad news already priced in.
However, domestic and international liquidity factors have been quite favourable and the risk is on the downside. CLSA’s December 2018 Nifty target stands at 11,400 which offers a total return of around 10 percent, building in a 10 percent de-rating from the current multiple of 17.9x.
The Nifty currently trades at 17.9x one-year forward earnings and is 16 percent above the past five-year historical average. A strong improvement in earnings growth would be needed to deliver positive market returns, which is likely in our view.
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