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The Nifty50 is seen marking time near 10,400 level over the last few sessions as it scales back from its short-term overbought conditions generated by 300-point rally during the last week.
While this may lead to a temporal pause in upward momentum, we believe current round of profit booking will make the market healthier by working off short-term overbought conditions.
Structurally, the rally from the September 2017 lows (9,687 to 10,451 = 764 points) is larger in magnitude compared to the preceding rally of July-August 2017, measuring 689 points
The rally getting bigger highlights inherent strength in the trend amid persistent demand at elevated levels and augurs well for the continuance of the up move going forward.
We expect the index to eventually head towards the target of 10,600 level in the coming weeks as it is the measuring implication of the Bullish Double Bottom pattern formed during the August – September period.
The low of Bullish Hammer formed at 10,100 during early November 2017, remains a key immediate support for the Nifty. The support area of 10,100 levels is marked by the confluence of following:- Bullish gap area leading to the breakout from three-month range is placed around 10123-10096 region
- 50% retracements of current up move (9687-10490) are placed at 10094 levels
- Equality of preceding decline (10178-9687=491 points) as calculated from life high of 10490 is placed around 10000 levels
- The major trendline support joining the lows of December 2016 (7894) and September 2017 (9688) placed around 10100 levels
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